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CFES Area Studies Working Paper

富山大学拠点ではNIHU北東アジア地域研究プロジェクトの一環として,拠点構成員および協力関係にある国内外の研究者が執筆した論文をワーキング・ペーパーシリーズとして一部公開しています.ワーキング・ペーパーは以下からご覧いただけます.

1. Wendong Shi and Guoqing Zhao. “Breaks, Trends, and Unit Roots in Energy Prices: A New View from a Long-run Perspective.”

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Abstract: This paper investigates the trend properties in the annually price series for coal, natural gas, and petroleum over the period 1880 to 2012. In particular, we examine the presence of breaks in trend using a sequential procedure proposed by Kejriwal and Perron (2010), which offers consistent results regardless of whether the noise component is integrated or stationary. We then test for unit root according to the occurrences of breaks using various model specifications. For price series that has no breaks in the trend, we directly perform the Ng-Perron (2001) unit root test. For prices with at least one breaks, we employ the procedure of Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009) to allow for an arbitrary number of breaks with unknown break dates under both the null and alternative hypotheses. We further investigate their trend properties by estimating deterministic trend with an integrated or stationary noise component, using the Perron-Yabu trend estimate. We find evidence against unit root and rising deterministic trend for all the three price series; multiple breaks in trends are observed for coal and petroleum.

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2. Ke Shuifa, Qiao Dan, and Kong Xiangzhi. “Chinese Timber Circulation: History, Status and Suggestions.”

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Down for revision.

3. Gaku Ito. “International Trade and Disputes in Northeast Asia: Disaggregating Commodity-, Region-, and Period-Specific Effects”

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Abstract: Does commerce reduce international conflict? Political scientists and economists have long debated how and why international trade and dependencies influence the likelihood of international disputes. We argue that three major, oft-employed assumptions in the literature should be a subject of systematic examination rather than simply assumed away — that the impact of trade dependence on conflict remain constant regardless of (1) what commodities are traded (commodity aggregation), (2) regional characteristics (spatial aggregation), and (3) uncertainty in the international system (temporal aggregation). This brief paper focuses on the validity of the second assumption. Initial empirical results show that the impacts that trade dependence and asymmetry have on the likelihood of conflict vary across regions. We find that, as previous studies have demonstrated, conflicts are less likely to occur when the degree of trade dependence increases, while conflict becomes more likely when asymmetry of trade dependence increases in a pooling estimate without the regional dummies. Nonetheless, these empirical relationships are reversed in Northeast Asia — trade dependence has a relatively weak but conflict-provoking effect, while trade asymmetry has a conflict-reducing effect where the dyads include one or more member state in the region. These empirical findings suggest that closer attention should be paid to the region-specific dynamics of war and peace in future studies.

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